The Top 10 Contract Years to Watch in 2026: Unlocking Massive Deals or Bust?
The upcoming season promises to be a pivotal one for many players as they approach the end of their contracts. While a player's entire career is evaluated during free agency, their performance in the final year can significantly impact their future earnings. Here's a deep dive into some of the most captivating contract-year players for 2026, ranked by their 2025 FanGraphs WAR:
Skubal's Historic Chase: Will Skubal become the third pitcher ever to win three consecutive Cy Young Awards? That's the question on everyone's mind. If he achieves this feat, he might surpass Yoshinobu Yamamoto's record-breaking $325 million contract for a pitcher. But here's where it gets controversial: Skubal's trade status this offseason adds an intriguing layer to his story.
Luzardo's Redemption: Despite a 3.92 ERA in 2025, Julio Luzardo's potential is undeniable. His 2.90 FIP suggests he was better than the stats show, and his 2025 performance was a rebound from an injury-filled 2024. With 216 strikeouts and a career-high 183 2/3 innings pitched, he's a free agent to watch. But can he stay healthy? That's the million-dollar question.
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Pivetta's Pay Day: After a career year in 2025, Nick Pivetta's $55 million contract with the Padres seemed justified. But the righty has an opt-out clause at the end of 2026, and if he maintains his 2025 form, he could be in line for an even bigger deal.
Peralta's Consistency: Freddy Peralta's durability and strikeout ability are impressive, with four straight seasons of 30+ starts and 200+ strikeouts in sight. His consistency in preventing runs (ERA of 3.86 or lower since 2021) could make him a hot commodity, especially compared to Dylan Cease's recent struggles.
Sale's Late-Career Surge: Chris Sale, a veteran lefty, has never been a free agent, but that's about to change. With his contract ending at 37, he'll be looking to replicate Max Scherzer's $130 million deal at the same age. Can he continue his late-career success, which included a Cy Young Award in 2024?
Rogers' Redemption Arc: Josh Rogers' career has been a rollercoaster. After stellar performances in 2021 and 2025, can he prove he's a frontline pitcher? Or are his 2022-24 numbers more indicative of his true ability? His contract year will be a telling tale.
Grisham's Breakout: Trent Grisham's 2025 season was a revelation, with 34 home runs and a 125 OPS+. But will he build on this success or revert to his 2022-24 form? His decision to accept the Yankees' qualifying offer might suggest he's betting on himself to have another standout season.
Arozarena's Offensive Threat: Randy Arozarena's five straight 20-20 seasons and a 120 OPS+ make him an attractive free agent. However, a high strikeout rate and Seattle's pitcher-friendly park might be points of concern.
King's Health and Performance: Cal Quantrill King's 2025 season was cut short by injuries, but his 2024 performance (2.95 ERA, 201 K's) was impressive. He's already secured a $75 million deal with the Padres, but an injury-free 2026 could lead to an opt-out and an even bigger contract next offseason.
Other players to keep an eye on include Sandy Alcantara, Shane Bieber, Ian Happ, and more.
As these players navigate their contract years, the baseball world will be watching. Who will secure their legacy with a massive deal, and who might fall short of expectations? Share your predictions in the comments, and let's discuss the potential outcomes for these talented athletes.
