The 2026 midterm elections are heating up, and immigration is a key battleground. Republicans are doubling down on immigration enforcement as a winning issue, despite a rocky start to the year for messaging on the president's top policy. They're spending more money and running more ads than Democrats, with nearly 300 ads mentioning immigration or focusing solely on it, compared to 62 from the Democratic side. This strategy is a continuation of their success in the 2024 elections, where themes like increasing border security and reducing crime resonated with voters.
One of the most expensive ads, costing $928,000, is from Republican candidate Perry Johnson in the Michigan governor's race. Johnson, a "MAGA Conservative," pitches his business approach to running the state, criticizing the use of tax dollars to provide benefits to illegal immigrants and advocating for ICE to remove "fraudsters." This ad highlights the personal interpretation of immigration as a matter of fiscal responsibility and national security.
However, the issue of immigration is complex and multifaceted. While Republicans focus on border security and crime, Democrats lean into pro-immigration statements, criticizing incumbents for recent votes on bills that provide funding to immigration officers or expand detention scope. A Gallup poll shows that most Americans support some form of pathway to citizenship, with a majority of Republicans favoring hiring more Border Patrol agents, deporting those without legal status, and banning sanctuary cities.
The primary season has become decisive for many candidates, with most seats up for grabs considered safe for one party or another. Campaigns are testing out issues through the general election, and immigration is a top subject for both parties. Republicans link immigration to border, crime, and the economy, while Democrats focus on personal connections to immigration and proposals to limit enforcement.
The trend suggests that both parties will lean into immigration leading up to the November election, but strategists caution against reading too much into advertisements. The diverse streams of information arriving on people's phones have changed the dynamics of political advertising, making it less decisive than in the past. However, the data and personal interpretations of immigration as a winning issue or a matter of national security remain a significant factor in the 2026 midterm elections.
